Signal Building-sector forecasts are most accurate but face rising uncertainty

Summary

Buildings recorded the smallest error among the three sectors, with an average absolute percentage error of 2.1 percent. Over- and under-forecasts were mixed rather than tilted in one direction. The author links this accuracy to residential, commercial and public demand tracking relatively stable trend variables. That stability may not last, because heat pump deployment, changing heating and cooling needs and building electrification could widen demand volatility. The sector comparison as a whole suggests that aggregate error reflects different forces acting in each sector rather than one uniform bias.