Issue Critical minerals competition heightening geopolitical tension

Summary

The report names competition over critical minerals as one of the long-term uncertainties for state threats. Stronger competition to secure these minerals could raise geopolitical tensions further. The report's analysis of critical minerals finds that their extraction and processing are concentrated in fewer places than oil or natural gas. Countries with large reserves and processing and refining capacity could use control over supply to extend their geopolitical influence. The report expects that disrupted supply chains could leave the net zero transition short of essential minerals and heighten tensions. It already judges that rapid geopolitical change has made the world more volatile and contested.