Trend State threats to the UK increasing and diversifying
Summary
The report defines state threats as actions by foreign governments that stop short of armed conflict but exceed peaceful diplomacy and normal statecraft, harming or endangering the safety or interests of the UK and its allies. The UK has always faced such threats, but fast geopolitical change worldwide is producing a more volatile and contested environment. The emergence of state-aligned actors is also widening the global cyber threat landscape. The report expects the global security environment could worsen in coming years, with state threats both growing and diversifying. These threats can involve acquiring information, physically endangering people, targeting assets and services, interfering from abroad and undermining international freedom and stability. Espionage, cyber attacks, economic measures and interference in democratic institutions are among the methods cited.
Classification
Evidence 1
- HM Government - Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science (Foresight) Chronic Risks Analysis HM Government - Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science (Foresight) no link — bibliographic entry p. 49 2025 accessed 2026-09-29
Observed signals 3
Part of issues 4
- IssueCritical minerals competition heightening geopolitical tension1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOffensive cyber pre-positioning against UK critical sites1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueState threats the most connected risk, with 11 links to acute risks1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueState-linked actors using AI for surveillance and disinformation1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-4d8638d953e4
