Trend The water weapon
Summary
Water crosses from humanitarian problem to national security instrument: demand pressure rises, the governance vacuum deepens, and both states and armed groups begin using access to water as leverage in the world's most dangerous rivalries.
Classification
Main topicResources, Food & Water
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-07-25)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 1
- Top Risks 2026 Eurasia Group page=36;section=Top Risk #10: The water weapon 2026-01 accessed 2026-07-25
Observed signals 8
- SignalA $137bn Chinese mega-dam met by a $77bn Indian counter-dam programme
- SignalA Moroccan dam due in 2026 would restrict water to Algerians
- SignalEthiopia inaugurates the Grand Renaissance Dam without a Nile agreement
- SignalHalf of humanity under seasonal water stress, 1.8 billion in absolute scarcity
- SignalIndia suspends the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty
- SignalOver 80% of Pakistani agriculture depends on Indian-controlled headwaters
- SignalThree fifths of 310 international river basins have no dispute framework
- SignalTwo UN water conferences ever, against annual processes for climate
Part of issues 0
No objects.
Relation types: supports
Public id: fm-24d758c36aec