Trend The water weapon

Summary

Eurasia Group's tenth top risk for 2026 argues that water is turning into the planet's most fiercely contested shared resource. Demand pressure is intensifying, governance is weak and climate change is accelerating glacier melt and droughts. About half of humanity faces water stress for at least a month a year, and most international river basins lack any dispute framework. States are using dams and treaty suspensions as leverage, as seen between Egypt and Ethiopia, India and Pakistan, and China and India, while jihadist groups in the Sahel seize wells to control populations. The report does not expect a single flashpoint in 2026, but warns that water will worsen the next shock.