Signal Ethiopia inaugurates the Grand Renaissance Dam without a Nile agreement

Summary

Eurasia Group reports that Ethiopia started operating its Grand Renaissance Dam in September 2025 after more than ten years of talks failed to yield a binding agreement on the Nile. The dam hands Addis Ababa control of a river supplying over 90% of Egypt's freshwater. Cairo, which calls the project an existential threat, has sought other forms of pressure, including aligning with Somalia and deploying troops to its counterterrorism mission. Ethiopia sees these moves as encirclement. The report concludes that neither accepting the dam nor escalating pressure gives Egypt water security, and both leave the Horn of Africa more tense.