Trend Megatrend 3: demographic imbalances
Summary
The third of the seven. The report splits the world in two — places where population is growing and places where it is shrinking — and treats the imbalance between them, rather than growth or decline alone, as the megatrend. It expects states with large elderly shares, naming China, Japan, South Korea and Europe, to run into growth constraints unless they adapt through automation and more flexible immigration.
Classification
Main topicDemographics & Migration
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon11-30 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- Megatrends 2040: Volatility, Uncertainty, Resourcefulness Hellenic Republic, Presidency of the Government — Working Group on Strategic Foresight and Futures Research (표지·판권면 로고로만 확인) page=6;section=Introduction 2022-07 (문헌 본문에 발행일 표기 없음 — PDF 메타데이터 생성일 2022-07-25 기준) accessed 2026-07-26
- Megatrends 2040: Volatility, Uncertainty, Resourcefulness Hellenic Republic, Presidency of the Government — Working Group on Strategic Foresight and Futures Research (표지·판권면 로고로만 확인) page=11;section=Megatrend 3 Demographic imbalances 2022-07 (문헌 본문에 발행일 표기 없음 — PDF 메타데이터 생성일 2022-07-25 기준) accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 9
- SignalFood output to double in four decades and water use up 30% by 2030
- SignalGlobal fertility down from 3.2 births in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019
- SignalGreece ranked fourth worldwide for working age population loss by 2050
- SignalGreek old age ratio put at 37.8% in 2020 and 79.7% in 2060
- SignalOECD old age ratio from 20% to 31% over forty years, and 58% projected for 2060
- SignalOne in four Europeans aged 65 and over by 2050
- SignalPopulations diverging: Egypt adding 21 million while more than 50 countries shrink
- SignalWorld population milestones from 2.6 billion in 1950 to 7 billion in 2011
- SignalWorld population projected to add 2 billion in thirty years and reach 9.7 billion in 2050
Part of issues 6
- IssueClaim that automation will offset the shrinking workforce1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKey point: research systems pressured by falling youth participation and brain drain1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePension, health and long term care systems under ageing pressure1 trends · 1 signals
- IssuePopulation growth translates into food, housing, migration and resource pressure1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe silver economy rests on assumptions about health and retirement age1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWater demand rises exponentially while supply turns volatile4 trends · 1 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-29945ac95e94