Issue Swing factors, not daily indicators, mark the shift between pathways

Summary

MGI argues that the United States is the only major economy now showing signs of productivity acceleration, but that this is not assured over the long term and other economies still have a potential route to it. Rather than reacting to the daily flow of indicators, market swings, and political headlines, the report suggests focusing on a few swing factors that can move an economy from one scenario to another. These factors differ by economy. For the United States they are the fiscal tightrope of reducing deficits without overcorrecting and sustained high corporate earnings, with no major AI disappointment. For the eurozone the key is higher corporate investment backed by competitiveness reforms, and for China it is decisive reforms toward consumption, such as stronger wages, pensions, education, and health care.