Issue Risk: slow repair of Gulf energy facilities keeps oil supply tight through 2027

Summary

KIEP expects that repairing energy facilities damaged in the war will take considerable time, so oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels by 2027. Major sites such as Qatar's Ras Laffan gas complex are expected to need three to five years to restore, making it hard to lift supply constraints before 2027. About half of upstream capacity in Middle East producers could recover within two weeks and 80 percent within about a month, but the remaining 20 percent may take more than six months because of technical limits such as lower well pressure. Replacing key rotating equipment such as gas compressors can take over 18 months just to source parts. A renewed or prolonged conflict could leave global inventories falling by about 6 million barrels a day, and facility strikes or escalation remain an upside risk to prices.