Issue Four 2030 competitiveness scenarios defined by regulation and geopolitical volatility

Summary

The World Economic Forum's four scenarios for competitiveness in 2030 provide a frame for analyzing risk factors and strategic assumptions and for running stress tests. They are defined by two axes, the intensity of regulation and the degree of geopolitical volatility. Fortress economics combines high regulation with high volatility, bringing sharply shrinking trade and openness and the highest regulatory costs. The negotiated order pairs high regulation with low volatility, offering a stable innovation environment but rising regulatory burden. Survival of the fastest couples low regulation with high volatility, deepening speculation, fragmentation and a race to the bottom. The fluid order has low regulation and low volatility, with the highest innovation and trade but a risk of deepening imbalance.