Issue Toward a 'scarcity economy' by 2050

Summary

The report finds that the Netherlands has enjoyed high and rising prosperity for decades, but expects it to become harder to keep that growth going. By around 2050 GDP growth may no longer drive government policy, as growth itself is questioned more often and other routes to a better quality of life are explored. The report foresees that a shrinking workforce, ecological limits in the form of constrained and costlier raw materials, and security costs could together push the country toward a 'scarcity economy'. In that scenario the economic centre of gravity moves away from efficiency and financial wealth toward distribution, preservation and circular values. The taken-for-granted supply of cheap energy and raw materials is also under pressure, forcing firms to swap just-in-time efficiency for supply security and strategic stocks at structurally higher cost. The report adds that preserving growth would require GDP gains to come largely from productivity.