Trend From efficiency and open trade to economic security; scarcity broadens

Summary

The report finds that worsening geopolitical relations are shifting the economic focus from efficiency and open trade toward economic security and strategic autonomy. Scarcity therefore takes on a broader meaning, since access to critical raw materials, energy and technology can no longer be assumed alongside the shortage of workers. Global demand for critical materials needed in the digital and energy transitions is surging, while geopolitical rivalry makes supply less certain. For an open economy like the Netherlands, deeply embedded in global value chains, dependence on imports of these strategic goods is a direct risk. Firms are consequently moving from pure cost efficiency, or just-in-time, toward security of supply and strategic stocks, or just-in-case, which the report expects to raise costs structurally.