Trend From liberalisation to scarcity, rivalry and defending own values

Summary

The report says that anyone who expected globalisation, democratisation and faith in markets to settle into a stable rules-based order after the fall of the Wall has been rudely awakened in recent years. European reports by Draghi, Niinistö and Letta and the EU's Strategic Foresight Report 2025 keep the established megatrends but reinterpret them through resilience, strategic autonomy and geopolitical competition. As drivers the report lists the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, hybrid threats such as cyberattacks, drones and sabotage, the rush of investment around AI, the shifting role of the United States including tariffs, and a world order splitting into blocs. These reports speak far more concretely about positioning Europe as a geopolitical actor, strengthening competitiveness and the single market, and actively countering disinformation and attacks on the rule of law. The new paradigm the report describes no longer counts on ever more liberalisation and globalisation but on growing scarcity and rivalry, with values and policy room actively defended in trade, technology, information and the rule of law.