Signal War–geopolitical tension the strongest of 705 risk links

Summary

The report gathered links between risks by asking respondents, for each of five randomly assigned risks, to pick the one risk most likely to cause it and the one most likely to follow from it. In total the survey identified 705 such connections. Of these, the link between geopolitical tension and large-scale war was stronger than the link between any other pair of risks. On this basis the report concludes that rising geopolitical tension is the single most likely route to large-scale war as an end state. Geopolitical tension is defined as major change in the global political landscape involving shifts in power relations, alliances and strategic interests among countries. The report adds that this link shows how the world could reach the brink of war but not the policy choices that would lead there.