Issue Four drivers of geopolitical tension as policy levers

Summary

According to the report's network data, the single most likely path to large-scale war runs through rising geopolitical tension. The four risks most closely tied to geopolitical tension are natural resource shortages, economic fragmentation, misinformation and the collapse of multilateral institutions. They belong to different risk groups and differ in the actors involved and in when they might materialize, yet they share the role of primary drivers of geopolitical tension. Going one step further back, natural resource shortages connect most strongly to climate change inaction, economic fragmentation to a global financial crisis, misinformation to AI and frontier technologies, and multilateral institution collapse to the breakdown of the rule of law. Respondents treat policy choices in these four areas as the most important factors deciding whether the world moves towards or away from large-scale war. For all four drivers, respondents named joint action by several governments as the best way to reduce the risk.