Signal EU forging "hedging alliance" with Indo-Pacific middle powers; Macron's April 2026 Tokyo-Seoul tour

Summary

French President Emmanuel Macron, visiting Tokyo and Seoul, told audiences not to become vassals of two hegemonic powers and called on middle-sized nations to form a coalition of independents resisting coercion from the US and China. This continued a proposal he had first raised at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The push is described as part of a broader effort by the EU to build a hedging alliance with Indo-Pacific middle powers, including Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and key ASEAN states, based on defense-industrial and geoeconomic ties rather than NATO-style collective security. The EU has already concluded a comprehensive economic partnership and investment protection agreement with Indonesia centered on nickel resources. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney voiced a similar view at Davos, saying middle powers must act together because those not at the table end up on the menu. Analysts describe the arrangement as a way to raise the cost of coercion by any single great power rather than a new military bloc, while cautioning that its durability depends partly on the unpredictability of the US administration.