Signal EU forging "hedging alliance" with Indo-Pacific middle powers; Macron's April 2026 Tokyo-Seoul tour

Summary

In April 2026, French President Emmanuel Macron told audiences in Tokyo and Seoul not to become "vassals of two hegemonic powers," calling on middle-sized nations to form a "coalition of independents" resisting coercion from the US and China, building on a proposal he first made at the May 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The Diplomat frames this as part of a broader EU effort to forge a "hedging alliance" with Indo-Pacific middle powers spanning Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and key ASEAN states, built on defense-industrial synergies and geoeconomic ties rather than collective-security commitments like NATO. The EU concluded a comprehensive economic partnership agreement and an investment protection agreement with Indonesia in September 2025, with nickel resources central to the deal. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney echoed the theme at Davos 2026, warning that "middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu." Analysts caution the durability of these commitments depends partly on the unpredictability of the US administration, and describe the arrangement as raising the political and economic costs of coercion by any single great power rather than constituting a new military bloc.