Signal $7 trillion of investment pledges face their first real test

Summary

Eurasia Group estimates that investment promises from governments and companies made to the US total about $7 trillion. In 2026 these commitments will be tested against actual delivery, and the report expects many to prove to be political theatre. The context is an economy where consumer confidence sits near record lows, hiring is weakening and inflation remains sticky. The report also expects the gap between promised manufacturing revival and actual job losses in the sector to become harder to deny. Such disappointments, it argues, will push the administration toward more aggressive intervention rather than restraint.