Trend State capitalism with American characteristics

Summary

Eurasia Group ranks as a top risk for 2026 what it calls American-style state capitalism. It judges the Trump administration to be the most economically interventionist since the New Deal and expects that approach to widen and harden in 2026. Unlike the previous administration's policy of supporting only strategic sectors, this model has no limiting principle, and firms that align with the president's agenda receive better treatment on deals, approvals and tariff exemptions. Tools include equity stakes, revenue-sharing, export licences and investment-for-tariff-relief deals with foreign governments. With political pressure rising before the midterms, the report expects the president to escalate interventions rather than retreat.