Trend Geopolitical instability raising the threat of violence

Summary

The report holds that geopolitical instability raises the risk of violent threats. These can come from state actors such as Russia, which regularly launches covert sabotage along the eastern border of the EU, and such operations are growing in intensity and variety. Besides cyberattacks and disinformation, they can target energy supply, water networks, payments, aviation and rail, with the aim of undermining European stability and hampering support for Ukraine. Geopolitical tension, along with climate change putting pressure on ways of life in some regions, has also made trade less secure. The report points out that disputes over sea routes, great-power rivalry and intensifying maritime competition pose a greater risk to trade lines.