Signal Basic Plan demand forecasts flipped from underestimation to overestimation

Summary

Comparing successive Basic Plans with actual KEPCO electricity sales shows a reversal in the direction of forecast error. The first through fourth plans tended to fall short of actual demand growth, while the fifth through tenth plans increasingly overshot realised consumption. KEPCO sales rose from 258TWh in 2002 to 526TWh in 2019 but have since stalled and fluctuated. The author reads this as a sign that recent plans may not have captured structural change and the slowdown in demand fast enough. A footnote cautions that plan demand and utility sales differ conceptually, especially as behind-the-meter generation and corporate power purchase agreements spread.