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2026-10-08
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Build time
2026-10-08 19:44 KST
The Futures

Issue Compute-restriction tactics have stopped working and the report warns of technological brinkmanship

Summary

This issue describes how efforts to hold back a technological rival through resource controls have lost their effect. Historically, the United States tried to limit Chinese competition by restricting access to resources such as semiconductors. Yet recent Chinese advances, notably DeepSeek, show models that use fewer resources while delivering nearly equal results, reviving global competition. Researchers cited in the report warn that unless such tactics cool, the outcome could undermine global stability, stall science and push both countries toward dangerous technological brinkmanship, with Taiwan and the chipmaker TSMC as a critical flashpoint. Tensions have since risen further through global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, making AI security a defining national security issue for Europe as well.

Classification

Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-07-26)
Published2026
Last updated2026-09-30 12:56 KST

Evidence 2

Constituent trends 1

Directly linked signals 0

No objects.

Relation types: constitutes

Public id: fm-66cbd7bf9023