Signal War jumps sixteen places in imminence; 36% expect it within a year

Summary

Large-scale war rose sixteen places in the imminence ranking, the largest upward move in the 2026 survey. Some 36 per cent of respondents expect large-scale war to break out within a year, while 76 per cent expect it within seven years. The report reads this as a sign that war has moved from a far-off danger to one close at hand. The imminence question asked respondents to choose when each risk would seriously harm a large part of humanity, from bands such as within twelve months, in one to seven years or in eight to fifteen years. The report sees the biggest change of 2026 in the fact that the risks judged most important and interconnected are now also judged the most imminent. It adds that because the survey ran from February to April 2026, pressing events of that time may be partly reflected in the answers.