Issue Large-scale war seen as imminent and least prepared for

Summary

The report defines large-scale war as the risk the world can see approaching yet is least prepared to confront. In respondents' eyes war has turned from a remote danger into a present one, and it jumped sixteen places in the imminence ranking, the biggest rise in the whole survey. It also ranked near the top for importance alongside geopolitical tensions and was named the biggest driver of other risks and one of the most interconnected. At the same time, perceived multilateral preparedness declined faster for war than for any other risk. In his preface the UN Secretary-General observed that war is now seen as far more important and immediate than two years earlier. Building on these results, the report ran a separate strategic foresight exercise that works backwards from war.