Trend Global growth diverging according to countries' participation in AI supply chains

Summary

The world economy proved more resilient than expected in the second quarter of 2026 as major economies used fiscal support and supply-chain adjustments to absorb the energy shock from the Middle East. Expanding AI infrastructure investment was another factor sustaining solid growth in major economies. China was the exception, with growth slowing somewhat as weak consumption and investment deepened despite strong exports. Since then, conditions in both manufacturing and services have generally stayed firm across major economies, with the euro area purchasing managers' index moving back into expansion. Looking ahead, the Bank of Korea expects moderate world growth on AI investment and trade, but with the pace across countries diverging according to how deeply each participates in the AI supply chain.