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2026-10-08
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2026-10-08 19:44 KST
The Futures

Issue Growth scenarios for Korean energy demand: primary demand ranges from 0.4 percent annual growth to a 0.2 percent decline

Summary

To reflect economic uncertainty, the institute sets high and low growth scenarios that differ from the baseline by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 and 0.3 points a year in 2027 to 2030, giving average growth of 2.4 and 1.8 percent against 2.1 percent. Sustained AI-driven chip demand from big technology firms could lift growth, while prolonged turmoil from the Middle East war could raise production costs and depress it. Primary energy demand rises 0.4 percent a year to 312 Mtoe in 2030 in the high case and falls 0.2 percent a year to 303 Mtoe in the low case. Final demand declines 0.2 percent a year to 209 Mtoe in the high case and 0.8 percent a year to 203 Mtoe in the low case, with gas the most sensitive source. Transport and buildings respond less to growth than industry because they depend more on energy prices, and the scenarios deliberately leave out price effects on demand.

Classification

Main topicEnergy & Climate Tech
Secondary topicsMacroeconomy & Finance
Region menusEast Asia Korea
Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:KR
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-09-04
Last updated2026-10-01 17:42 KST

Evidence 9

Constituent trends 2

Directly linked signals 1

Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent

Public id: fm-7d6ec926e0a9