Signal KEEI outlook assumes Korean GDP growth of 2.1 percent a year and oil near 80 dollars in 2026 falling to the low 60s

Summary

The Korea Energy Economics Institute builds its 2026 to 2030 outlook on assumed average GDP growth of 2.1 percent a year, with growth widening in 2026 and then gradually slowing. It takes 2.6 percent growth for 2026 from the Bank of Korea's May 2026 forecast, citing strong semiconductor exports and government measures such as the supplementary budget, and expects growth to slow to the low 2 percent range in 2027. International oil prices, measured by Dubai crude, are assumed to rise 15.3 percent in 2026 to around 80 dollars a barrel because of the Middle East war and disrupted Hormuz shipping. From 2027 prices are expected to fall to the low 60 dollar range and fluctuate around 60 dollars as shipping recovers, an average decline of 2.5 percent a year. Heating degree days are assumed to fall 1.0 percent and cooling degree days 33.3 percent in 2026 before converging to recent ten-year averages.