Signal AI-related investment added more to US growth in 2025 than during the dot-com boom

Summary

In the first half of 2025, the contribution of AI-related investment to US real GDP growth exceeded the level seen during the dot-com boom. From the first to the third quarter of 2025, investment in information processing equipment and software added 0.77 percentage points to real GDP growth, compared with a long-run average of 0.28 points and 0.69 points in the fourth quarter of 2000. KIEP expects AI investment to remain a main driver of investment for a considerable period after 2026, though its influence should gradually decline. Large AI and data centre spending plans are expected to lift real business investment more sharply in 2026, after real private investment grew 1.93 percent in 2025. Rising energy costs could create investment bottlenecks, and a sharp rise in chip costs could delay projects.