Trend AI investment acts as the main growth engine but faces cost and cycle limits

Summary

AI-related investment is the main source of strength in the update, supporting US growth and world trade even as energy and tariff shocks bite. In the United States, AI-related capital spending underpinned growth momentum in 2025 after consumption and investment turned out stronger than expected. The report nevertheless warns that higher energy prices raise the power, transport and component costs of data centres, chips and servers, which could slow the AI investment cycle. If AI equipment spending and related trade cool faster than expected, the downward pressure of the energy shock on the real economy would grow. On the upside, AI could lift medium-term growth if its use spreads from infrastructure into productivity gains across manufacturing and services.