Signal War the only risk in the top six on all four dimensions

Summary

The report names the centrality and imminence of large-scale war as the most significant finding of the 2026 survey. Large-scale war is the only global risk that placed within the top six on all four dimensions of interconnectedness, importance, imminence and lack of preparedness. No risk held such a central position in the 2024 survey, and no other risk meets this condition in 2026. War ranked 23rd of 28 for preparedness and rose sixteen places in imminence. On this basis the report chose, instead of laying out several future scenarios as in 2024, to work backwards from war as the single greatest vulnerability. The exercise uses the rankings on the four dimensions to find the drivers of war and the data on actions and barriers to identify policy options.