Issue Risk chaining: cascading compound risks

Summary

International risks are undergoing qualitative change as they become normalised, diversified and globalised. As a result one hazard increasingly triggers or amplifies others, spreading like dominoes in what the survey calls risk chaining or cascading risk. The COVID-19 pandemic showed how a single shock can spill into other domains through unexpected channels and generate non-linear, exponential damage. Digitalisation, economic integration and globalised supply chains mean a regional shock can travel around the world within hours. Vertical, siloed governance that handles pandemics, recession and welfare separately cannot address such interconnected problems, so the panel calls for integrated cross-ministry and cross-border response systems.