Issue An unpredictable United States as security guarantor

Summary

The report holds that US support for NATO is no longer as self-evident as it once was. It goes further, stating that a US attack on a NATO member has stopped being unthinkable, with Greenland named as a case where this lies within the range of possibilities. In the Western Hemisphere the report sees Washington as more inclined toward military action, as in Venezuela, and does not rule this out for Mexico, Cuba, Colombia and Greenland. It also judges that attacks on democratic institutions weaken the American position on the international stage. The report groups US political developments, the shifting American role in global institutions and geoeconomics, unilateral tariffs and threats of them, and less predictable security guarantees among the forces reshaping the European context.