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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Trend Territorial defence back on Europe's agenda after Ukraine

Summary

The report sees the war in Ukraine as a turning point that changed European thinking about defending its own territory. Although Russia is officially at war with Ukraine, many forms of its hybrid warfare target the EU and NATO countries, and its sabotage actions almost quadrupled between 2023 and 2024. As a result, the defence of European territory against a Russian threat has become a central agenda item for the first time since the end of the Cold War. With US support for NATO no longer taken for granted, the EU has raised defence investment, and ReArm Europe aims at joint procurement and production of equipment and at new capabilities in drones, cyber defence and space. In the Netherlands, too, industry and research at universities and knowledge institutions are increasingly oriented toward defence.

Classification

Region menusGlobal Europe
Impactscope:transnational · geo_region:europe · strategic_group:EU
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-05
Last updated2026-09-30 11:23 KST

Evidence 1

Observed signals 3

Part of issues 1

Relation types: constitutes · supports

Public id: fm-bf18d7fac6ad