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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Issue Electoral volatility and harder coalition formation

Summary

The report finds that people who believe in alternative truths vote for outsider parties more often. As trust in institutions declines, voters are drawn more strongly to parties that challenge the established order and institutional frameworks, which shows up as electoral volatility. Politics fragments as a result and power blocs in parliament shift. For the governability of the Netherlands, this means that forming a stable coalition becomes more complicated. Inside government, tensions can also arise between political wishes and existing rule-of-law frameworks or international treaties, and the report describes this as an important driver of growing activism among civil servants.

Classification

Region menusEurope
Impactscope:country · geo_region:europe · country:NL
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-05
Last updated2026-09-30 11:23 KST

Evidence 1

Constituent trends 3

Directly linked signals 1

Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent

Public id: fm-a27dabc30ba4