Trend The drone age: violence gets cheap enough for everyone

Summary

Eurasia Group argues that war is becoming cheap. Drones, cyber tools and autonomous systems that once belonged to advanced militaries can now be purchased, adapted or assembled for a few hundred dollars by militias, cartels and middle powers. Cheap commercial drones, mostly made in China and easily modified to carry explosives, are the defining weapon of this shift. Recorded drone incidents grew from 6,000 in 2020 to 51,000 in 2024, and lessons from Ukraine are spreading through online manuals and foreign volunteers. As AI removes the need for skilled pilots and enables swarms, the report expects a steadily rising baseline of drone incidents that will disrupt businesses, supply chains and infrastructure.