Signal OECD dependency ratio to 52% by 2060, with EU growth already entirely from migration

Summary

Across the OECD, the old-age dependency ratio is projected to reach 52% by 2060, and Italy, Japan, Poland, Korea and Spain are expected to exceed 75%. In the EU in 2024, deaths outnumbered births, so all population growth came from net migration. EY concludes that migration is moving from being economically useful to being economically essential. For most advanced economies it is becoming the only remaining source of workforce growth. An EY adviser adds that Europe is heading toward roughly 1.5 workers for every pensioner in the coming decades, underlining the need for younger talent from abroad.