Signal OECD dependency ratio to 52% by 2060, with EU growth already entirely from migration

Summary

The OECD old-age dependency ratio is projected to reach 52% by 2060 with Italy, Japan, Poland, Korea and Spain above 75%, while in the EU in 2024 all population growth came from net migration as deaths outpaced births.

Classification

Main topicDemographics & Migration

Secondary topicsLabor & Future of Work

Region menusGlobal

Occurrencescope:transnational · strategic_group:EU

Impactscope:global

Time horizon11-30 years (2026-07-25)

Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52

Evidence 1

Futures Reimagined: EY Megatrends 2026 and beyond EY (Ernst & Young Global Limited) page=38;section=Megatrend 5: Migration infrastructure 2026 accessed 2026-07-25

Part of trends 1

TrendMigration infrastructure8 signals

Directly linked issues 0

No objects.

Relation types: supports

Public id: fm-af8b95f25757