Trend Migration infrastructure
Summary
EY frames migration as the scaffolding through which capability moves across borders, made up of systems, policies and physical capacity. It argues that countries and companies that treat migration as economic infrastructure, rather than as a political flashpoint, will lead. Ageing populations, climate-driven displacement, geopolitical volatility and AI disruption are converging, making the ability to attract, integrate and retain global talent a decisive factor. The core building blocks are visa processing, credential recognition, housing and integration systems, which decide whether demographic pressure turns into economic gain. EY stresses that this is not a stopgap for current skills gaps but lasting infrastructure that pays off however automation develops, and that business, government and civil society must build it together over the next decade.
Classification
Evidence 1
- Futures Reimagined: EY Megatrends 2026 and beyond EY (Ernst & Young Global Limited) page=37;section=Megatrend 5: Migration infrastructure 2026 accessed 2026-07-25
Observed signals 8
- SignalA third of educated immigrants overqualified; 73% in Korea
- SignalBorders stratify by skill and wealth as humanitarian routes tighten
- SignalForced displacement at 123 million, nearly double a decade ago
- SignalHousing absorption failing: 5.1 Canadian residents per new home against a 1.9 average
- SignalOECD dependency ratio to 52% by 2060, with EU growth already entirely from migration
- SignalRecord 45.8 million disaster displacements in 2024; up to 216 million climate migrants by 2050
- SignalSub-Saharan Africa's working-age population to reach 1.6 billion by 2050
- SignalUS needs 67,000 semiconductor workers through 2030
Part of issues 3
- IssueAbsorption capacity, not supply or demand, is the binding constraint1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueElectoral cycles make migration policy unplannable1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueMigration infrastructure holds value even if automation advances1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-bc28009ce9d7
