Issue Semiconductor scenarios: faster or slower chip export growth and their effects on Korean growth and inflation

Summary

The chip cycle remains strong, but concern is growing that big technology firms may adjust the pace of their AI investment, so the Bank of Korea tests alternative semiconductor scenarios. In the optimistic case, agentic AI and more diverse AI revenue models lift demand while Korean producers expand capacity and improve yields. Chip export volumes would then grow around 20 percent in 2026 and in the mid-to-high teens in 2027, raising growth by 0.2 points in 2026 and 0.6 points in 2027 and adding 0.2 points to 2027 inflation. In the pessimistic case, delayed AI monetisation and higher borrowing costs force big tech to cut investment substantially, though long-term supply contracts partly cushion demand. Export volume growth would slow to the mid teens in 2026 and around 10 percent in 2027, cutting growth by 0.1 and 0.4 points and lowering 2027 inflation by 0.1 points.