Trend Structural expansion of the global semiconductor cycle driven by AI infrastructure investment

Summary

The Bank of Korea sees the global semiconductor cycle as being in a structural expansion rather than a short-lived upswing. Continued investment in infrastructure for the spread of AI, including agentic applications, underpins that demand. This expansion is the main engine behind Korea's upgraded growth forecast and its record current account surplus. The bank nonetheless flags a possible slowdown in the pace of AI investment, driven by concerns over profitability, as a risk to the cycle. The same concern appears on the list of downside risks to Korean growth, showing how closely the domestic outlook is tied to the chip cycle. The trend therefore combines strong structural momentum with vulnerability to shifts in the spending plans of large technology firms.