Signal Atlantic Council: Eight ways AI will shape geopolitics in 2026; US AI Action Plan

Summary

The Atlantic Council's 'Eight Ways AI Will Shape Geopolitics in 2026' was published 15 January 2026 and highlights, among other dynamics, President Trump's December 2025 decision to allow Nvidia to export advanced H200 chips to China as a signal the US believes it wins when the world runs on US AI technology. It expects more US AI partnerships modeled on 2025 deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while noting China's advantages in open-source models and applied AI deployment could win market share elsewhere. The piece flags 2026 as the first truly global phase of AI governance, with a UN-backed Global Dialogue on AI Governance and an Independent International Scientific Panel on AI giving nearly all states a forum to debate AI risks and norms. It also anticipates a wave of sovereign AI announcements, starting with India's planned sovereign large language model launch at the AI Impact Summit in February 2026. Separately, the Trump administration repealed Biden-era AI executive orders in January 2026 and issued a request for information toward a new 'AI Action Plan,' while OMB Memorandum M-26-04 (December 2025) introduced new procurement and transparency rules for federal generative AI use, and the Department of Defense launched an AI Acceleration Strategy in January 2026.