Signal Modelled trade effects of the 2025 US-China tariff exchange on Korea

Summary

The research team modelled the tariff situation as of late October 2025, assuming US fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs on China and Chinese retaliatory tariffs while negotiations were still under way. Under those assumptions, US imports from China fall by 184 billion dollars and Chinese imports from the US by 30.2 billion dollars. The resulting production losses in both countries spill over to Korea. Korean exports to China decline by an estimated 3.8 billion dollars and exports to the US by about 0.1 billion dollars. Because talks were still in progress, the results describe the tariff regime in force at that moment rather than a final settlement.