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2026-10-08
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4434
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2026-10-08 19:44 KST
The Futures

Issue Fragmented and contested governance of the seabed

Summary

Legal authority over marine space depends on zones set by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, with coastal states holding full sovereignty in the territorial sea but only sovereign rights over resources in the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. The deep seabed beyond national jurisdiction is the common heritage of humankind, and the International Seabed Authority licenses activities and drafts mining rules, but its remit covers minerals only, not general seabed protection or bottom trawling. No agreement on commercial mining rules exists, only exploration licenses have been issued, and more than 40 states have called for a moratorium. The High Seas Treaty, in force since January 2026, strengthens marine protected areas and impact assessment, but its effect hinges on political will and implementation. The report observes that siloed regimes for fisheries, shipping, mining and biodiversity make cumulative impacts hard to govern and that monitoring and enforcement capacity varies widely. It warns that if unilateral licensing that bypasses the authority, as in a recent US executive order, spreads, the common-heritage principle could be undermined just when agreed standards are most needed.

Classification

Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-09
Last updated2026-09-30 11:23 KST

Evidence 1

Constituent trends 1

Directly linked signals 3

Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent

Public id: fm-d8261d0fab3e