Trend Energy agencies are moving from single-point forecasts to scenario and range outlooks

Summary

Leading agencies abroad now present electricity demand, and data centre demand in particular, as ranges or multiple pathways rather than a single figure. The IEA pairs a base case with lift-off, high-efficiency and headwinds cases, while the US Energy Information Administration runs eleven scenarios alongside its reference outlook. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory builds bottom-up ranges from server utilisation, chip generations and cooling efficiency. Great Britain's system operator has moved from broad scenarios to strategic pathways tied directly to network investment and flexibility planning. Across these cases, demand outlooks are becoming tools for managing uncertainty and planning systems rather than one-off totals.