Issue Shifting Korea's Basic Plan from a single reference forecast to multiple scenarios

Summary

Where technology changes quickly, a single projected value cannot adequately represent future electricity demand. The author argues that demand should be understood as a problem of uncertainty ranges and pathways, as leading agencies abroad already do. Scenario comparison helps policymakers and stakeholders prepare for several paths and identify the variables and premises that most move demand. Electrification demand could be shown as a range depending on policy target achievement, efficiency gains and demand flexibility, while advanced industry could be split into high, middle and low paths by investment realisation. The recommendation is to phase in scenario-based outlooks for data centres, advanced industry and electrification, with high-demand, reference, high-efficiency and delayed-investment paths.