Issue Upside scenarios: early Middle East calm, AI productivity gains and faster trade de-escalation

Summary

The report lists three developments that could lift its forecasts. If the Middle East conflict calms early and supply fears around the Strait of Hormuz ease, energy prices and shipping costs could stabilise quickly, easing inflation and fears of prolonged monetary tightening. That would help restore household purchasing power, lower corporate costs and give central banks more room to ease. If AI adoption turns into cost savings, automation and new products and services, the current technology investment cycle could raise medium-term growth rather than end as a temporary boom. If trade conflicts ease and uncertainty over tariffs, export controls and supply chain restructuring falls, trade and private investment could recover faster than expected.