Issue 2050 regional order scenario 2: Confrontational coexistence between US and Chinese camps

Summary

The second scenario is one in which US-China confrontation persists but confrontation and coexistence exist side by side. If the world divides into two camps centered on Washington and Beijing, competition between the blocs would accelerate, yet a nuclear balance makes direct clashes unlikely. In such confrontational coexistence Korea and Japan would most likely belong to the US camp, their ties with China would weaken and they would increasingly align with the US strategy of containing China. The report ranks this among the three relatively most plausible scenarios and expects the two countries to strengthen cooperation around their US alliances while maintaining security cooperation with partners such as Australia and the Philippines. As the rivalry takes on the form of military confrontation and tensions rise in hot spots, the threats facing Korea and Japan would also grow.