Trend US-China strategic rivalry broadens from tariffs toward military competition

Summary

The second variable shaping the 2050 security environment is strategic competition between the United States and China, which has sharpened in scope and depth since the late 2010s. Pressure that began with high tariffs under the second Trump administration is likely to spread across sectors and could evolve into military rivalry. US national security strategies under the first Trump term and the Biden administration named Chinese and Russian revisionism, along with regional nuclear aspirants Iran and North Korea, as principal threats. China in particular is seen as a lasting pacing threat that combines capability with intent. The report treats this rivalry as the setting in which East Asian flashpoints and the security choices of Korea and Japan will unfold.