Signal Trade and policy uncertainty indices at post-2020 highs

Summary

Uncertainty over trade policy was a constant feature of 2025. The main driver was a series of US-led policy changes that extended tariffs, ranging from 10% to 145%, to more countries and more sectors. These swings set off market reactions and responses from governments around the world. As a result, both the World Policy Uncertainty Index and the World Trade Uncertainty Index climbed to their highest levels since 2020. Global trade is therefore likely to keep restructuring, as India, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and ASEAN diversify their trading partners.