Issue Linear, plan-centric forecasting limits Korea's long-term statutory plans

Summary

Korea's statutory long-range plans, such as the Science and Technology Basic Plan and the Comprehensive National Territorial Plan, set their direction on the basis of medium- and long-term outlooks. According to the author, these plans tend to extend past trends forward and fix numerical targets on that basis. Such an approach cannot adequately capture abrupt technological change or discontinuous shocks. A second weakness is the structural disconnect between futures research and policy, since studies are delivered as reports that rarely enter decision-making. The author calls the result a utilization gap and traces it to missing institutional links rather than to poor research quality. Overcoming both weaknesses is presented as the starting point for redesigning how the country builds strategy.