Signal CSF's Scenario Planning Plus toolkit targets discontinuities

Summary

The main reason the Singapore centre stands out is that it has developed and kept evolving its own methodology. Its Scenario Planning Plus framework keeps traditional scenario planning at the core while adding tools for weak signals, black swans and wild cards that conventional methods struggle to capture. The process has six stages, namely defining focus with the Cynefin framework, environmental scanning through expert dialogue, sense making with driving-forces and SWOT analysis, developing possible futures with scenarios and backcasting, designing strategies with war-gaming, and monitoring through early warning systems. Its strength is to overcome the weaknesses of linear forecasting models and prepare for several plausible futures. The centre's favorite line, that it is not an oracle, captures the aim of designing concrete strategies for many possibilities rather than predicting the future correctly. The toolkit is presented as evolving rather than finished, adapting to a more complex world.