Signal Cross-impact analysis of 16 trends flags four candidate dominant drivers

Summary

In a second step, KISTEP mapped cross-impacts among the 16 trends, coding each directed link simply as present or absent. The matrix was produced by running Claude Sonnet 4.5 five times independently, reconciling the runs for consistency and then confirming the result through the foresight committee. Trends with influence at or above the median and dependency below the median were treated as candidate dominant drivers, since they shape others while being little shaped themselves. Four trends met that test: the shift to a superintelligent society, adaptation to a shrinking society, accelerating climate crisis and complex geopolitics of technology, economy and security. Combined with the survey, three of them, all except the demographic trend, were finally chosen as the dominant drivers of future change.