Trend Trend O: Complex geopolitics of technology, economy and security

Summary

Technological hegemony competition, US 'MAGAnomics' and national economic security agendas are merging with geopolitical conflict to form a new international order. Reshoring and supply chain reorganisation are accelerating in strategic industries such as semiconductors, AI and batteries. Cyber, space and maritime clashes now threaten the economy and security at once, ushering in an era of complex geopolitics. The trend groups issues on the reorganisation of the international division of labour and on regional security tensions with military and hybrid conflict. Experts prioritised it and judged it highly uncertain, and cross-impact analysis showed strong influence with low dependency, so it was selected as one of three dominant drivers. In the issue network, regional security tension was tied for the second most connected issue after food security.